ESPN FPI predicts 10-2 record for Utah football


As the 2022 football season draws closer and fall camp is less than a week away, FanNation AllUtes breaks down ESPN FPI’s predictions for Utah’s 2022 schedule.

Overall, the defending Pac-12 champions are expected to be 10-2 according to the FPI.

The individual winning probabilities for each game are listed below.

September 3 @ Florida Gators

Utah REIT Win Probability: 47.9%

Despite a superior returning roster and a much more successful 2021 campaign compared to its opponent, ESPN shows the Utes no love in week one as they are favored to lose to Florida by a 2.5 speed.

Sure, he’s an SEC opponent and the spread is probably pretty accurate, but to favor a Florida team that went 6-7 last season over a Utah team that went against each other with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and finished 10-4? It seems to be based more on favoritism and conference superiority than actual teams.

Keep the probabilities but change the teams and it would seem much more accurate.

September 10 vs. SUU Thunderbirds

Utah REIT Win Probability: 99.4%

Home opener against struggling SUU program? Seems about right. Utah should absolutely beat the Thunderbirds at Rice Eccles and that 0.6% should be considered grace.

September 17 vs SDSU Aztecs

Utah REIT Win Probability: 90.2%

Lightning won’t strike twice as the Utes now host the San Diego State Aztecs at Rice Eccles and will seek revenge.

Thinking back to what happened last season, the simple explanation for this OT loss was the mistake of not just pitching Charlie Brewer, but holding him for most of the game. With Cameron Rising now in charge from the start, Utah won’t need a miracle comeback and should take care of business fairly easily.

September 24 @ Arizona State Sun Devils

Utah REIT Win Probability: 67.7%

After what ASU has endured over the past few months and the notable transfers they have seen, this program is in steep decline and could be doomed for the next few years.

Although the Utes will travel to Tempe for this game, it should be one of their easier Pac-12 matchups and a good chance to get a handle on the conference schedule.

October 1 vs. Oregon State Beavers

Utah REIT Win Probability: 84.9%

Another wild fluke of the 2021 season, the Utes’ 42-34 loss to the Beavers last year came as a surprise to everyone involved. Not only was Utah rolling, but the Beavers didn’t seem like much of a threat in any aspect. However, as Utah learned the Beavers were not to be taken lightly and that is something they should remember for this coming season.

Although the game is at Rice Eccles this year, an 84.9% win probability seems a bit high as Oregon State fires nine defensive starters who got the job done last season. However, with Utah’s star-studded offense, they should avenge last year’s loss, but don’t expect a blow.

October 8 @ UCLA Bruins

Utah REIT Win Probability: 58.4%

After Utah’s season opener against Florida, UCLA will be the first real test for the Utes as they are heavily favored in every game until they return to the Rose Bowl to face the Bruins.

Last season, UCLA looked like a darkhorse contender until Dorian Thompson-Robinson got injured and missed the game against Utah, resulting in a loss and sealing their fate.

Assuming Dorian Thompson-Robinson stays healthy this year, it will be interesting to see how the Utah defense handles him after he proved to be a primary source of wide-ranging offense for UCLA last season.

Whoever wins, this game will show how good both teams really are halfway through the season.

October 15 vs. USC Trojans

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Utah REIT Win Probability: 73.1%

This is perhaps the most surprising odds of the season and not because Utah is favored to win, but because of ESPN’s confidence in the Utes’ odds.

Should we favor Utah? Absolutely. Rice Eccles is not an easy place to win and lately it was downright nearly impossible. Moreover, with the number of new faces Trojans have on their roster, they are unlikely to fire full throttle.

However, with all that said, USC has arguably built its best roster in recent years and is hungry to win a Pac-12 championship once more before stepping out for the BIG 12. Will it be this year? Probably not, but by no means will they be a guaranteed win either.

October 27 @ Washington State Cougars

Utah REIT Win Probability: 81.1%

Assuming the Utes take care of business and prove ESPN’s ratings are correct, the bye week will come at the perfect time and give them a chance to breathe after two of their toughest Pac-12 matchups in the past. consecutive weeks.

Coming out of the bye week, Utah will then travel to Pullman to face Washington State, which may prove to be slightly more difficult than ESPN predicts. Three years in a row, the Utes have beaten the Cougars and they would love nothing more than to potentially ruin any hopes of a college football playoff appearance for Utah.

However, with the addition of a new trainer and without Jayden De Laura who is now a Wildcat, that doesn’t exactly mean spoiler.

Nov. 5 vs. Arizona Wildcats

Utah REIT Win Probability: 93.3%

While Arizona has been a bit of a joke the past few years, this is the game Utah needs to circle because there’s trap everywhere.

At this point in the season, the Utes should be somewhere around 7-1 or potentially even 8-0, which could make them overconfident, especially at home. Plus, with the recruiting and transfer work Arizona has done this offseason, they’re not to be taken lightly.

Is there really a good chance that Utah will win this game comfortably? Yes. But don’t sleep in Arizona.

Nov. 12 vs. Stanford Cardinal

Utah REIT Win Probability: 86.0%

Another week, another set of high odds in favor of Utah. Not only has Stanford been in decline for a while, but in recent years they’ve had a really hard time figuring out how to handle Utah.

Will it be an absolute blowout like last year? Unlikely. But will the Utes win by multiple possessions? Count on it.

November 19 @ Oregon Ducks

Utah REIT Win Probability: 47.6%

Week 11 in Eugene features the Ute’s first conference game where they are not favored by ESPN, but it’s really unclear how this game will play out at this point.

In just under four months, there’s absolutely no way to tell how this game will play out because there are too many factors. Will Bo Nix still be under center at this point? What does the Duck defense look like after Kayvon Thibodeaux? Can the Utes really win in Eugene? Is there any reason to believe Utah won’t do the same thing they did twice last year?

For now, mark that as a question mark because it’s too early to tell.

November 26 @ Colorado Buffaloes

Utah REIT Win Probability: 83.7%

With five straight wins over the Colorado Buffaloes, there’s no reason to believe the streak will end, especially with what may depend on the outcome.

If the Utes travel to Boulder with the 9-2 record predicted by ESPN, they could be looking to avenge an Oregon loss and secure a spot in the Pac-12 championship in order to defend their title. However, if they enter Colorado undefeated or with just one loss, they will need to finish strong to keep any CFP hopes alive.

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